Housing Feels the Middle East Fallout | S3 E 138 | 04-15-26

The housing market is starting to show signs of stress again.

In today’s Markets with Megan, Verdenec CIO Megan Horneman dissects the latest housing data and explains how rising mortgage rates, higher material costs, and Middle East conflict concerns are beginning to weigh on both builders and buyers.

Get insights on:

• The sharp drop in home builder confidence in April
• Why mortgage rates have climbed to a seven-month high
• How supply chain concerns are pushing up building material costs
• Why existing home sales fell to a nine-month low
• What rising Treasury yields and inflation pressures mean for housing going forward

Housing has already been one of the most rate-sensitive parts of the economy, and this latest data suggests it may remain under pressure as inflation and geopolitical risks continue to build.

Subscribe for more. And for a full history of this podcast, visit: https://marketswithmegan.fm

#MarketsWithMegan #HousingMarket #MortgageRates #Inflation #HomeBuilderConfidence #ExistingHomeSales #TreasuryYields #RealEstateMarket #EconomicOutlook #MarketUpdate #MiddleEastConflict #InterestRates

https://youtu.be/3AO-23cyjfU

Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks 
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance 
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any 
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

Transcript

Middle East Ripples Into Housing

Megan Horneman 0:00

We're starting to see the impact of the conflict in the Middle East show up in some of our housing data. It is Wednesday, April the 15th, and happy tax day.

Tax Day And Quick Welcome

Megan Horneman 0:08

This is Markets with Megan. If you like this podcast, you can subscribe. You can hit the alarm bell or share it with your friends, family, colleagues, anybody who likes to dig into the economic data that we receive every day and what that means for the economy and then the different asset

Housing Market Struggles And Brief Hope

Megan Horneman 0:23

classes. So let's dig right into the data we received this morning and some data we got earlier this week. It surrounds the housing market. And this is a part of the economy that has been struggling for years. Higher mortgage rates, higher costs. This has been a problem for the mortgage market. And we did, in the beginning of this year, have some signs of life there from the perspective of prospective buyers coming in and looking at homes. And that's because we had a drop in the mortgage rate.

Builder Confidence Drops On Rates

Megan Horneman 0:50

But now the data we got this morning is for home builder confidence. And this is for the month of April. We saw the biggest monthly drop in home builder confidence since May of 2025. And that's because mortgage rates did spike. And this is this they also spiked last year in May

Strait Of Hormuz Supply Cost Shock

Megan Horneman 1:12

of 2025 when we were dealing with the concerns around Liberation Day. Here we are about a year later, a similar situation around inflation and rising costs because of the conflict in the Middle East. Mortgage rates have jumped up again, they're to a seven-month high. And we've seen material costs also rising. So home builders are concerned about this. About 62% of them surveyed said that the suppliers were increasing building material costs. And then about 70% of those surveys actually said that they were unsure of how to price things because they um the uncertainty around how much building material costs will continue to rise. Remember, the Strait of Hormuz doesn't just carry oil. There's a lot of other products that come out of that. So that supply chain disruption is causing some pricing pressures now in the housing market.

Existing Sales Slide And Key Links

Megan Horneman 2:03

Earlier this week, we also got data on existing home sales, which were also weak. They fell about 3.6% to a nine-month low. And that was attributed to the fact that we got that spike in the mortgage rate. So the housing market is still very sensitive to the moves that we see in the mortgage rate. Mortgage rates are sensitive to the moves we see in treasury yields, and treasury yields are sensitive to inflation pressures. So we this is um news that we'll probably see some more coming out as with the data from March and April start to hit the

Wrap Up And Where To Listen

Megan Horneman 2:34

tape. That's all we have today. If you want a history of our podcast, you can go to marketswithmegan.fm. Thank you.