Is Market Mood Just Middle East Relief? | S3 E 142 | 04-28-26

The Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index for April came in better than expected, and it tells a notably different story from last week's near-record-low University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment reading. Megan breaks down what the numbers actually show and why the gap between these two indexes matters for investors watching consumer health.
The most striking detail: optimism around job availability jumped to its highest point of the year, and that confidence filtered into forward-looking indicators on home buying, auto purchases, and income expectations. She also examines whether the Middle East ceasefire and a pullback in oil prices played a role in the April mood shift.

In this episode, Megan covers:

- Why the Conference Board reading diverged from last week's University of Michigan sentiment index
- The jump in "jobs plentiful" vs. "jobs hard to get" spread, now at its highest of the year
- Business conditions expectations reaching their best level since October 2025
- Intent to buy a new automobile rising sharply in April
- Home buying intentions climbing to the highest level seen this year
- Income expectations hitting their best reading since last October, and what that signals for Q2 spending

If you're watching your portfolio and want to understand what consumer data actually signals right now, this is a focused five-minute breakdown worth your time. 

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For a history of all Markets with Megan episodes, visit: https://marketswithmegan.FM

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https://youtu.be/lLOgXFvk-q4

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Transcript

Conflict Fatigue Or Ceasefire Relief

Megan Horneman 0:00

Well, consumers are either getting used to this conflict in the Middle East or they are cheering the ceasefire that

Show Intro And How To Follow

Megan Horneman 0:06

we've had. It is Tuesday, April the 28th, and this is Markets with Megan. If you like this podcast, you can subscribe, hit the alarm bell, share it with your friends, family, colleagues, anybody who wants to dig into the economic data that comes in the news headlines every day and how it impacts the

April Consumer Confidence Beat

Megan Horneman 0:22

markets. Well, this morning we received the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence Index, and this is for the month of April. Last week we came to you with a near record low University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Index. But the Conference Board is telling a little bit of a different story. We actually saw consumer confidence and its components come in better than was expected. We saw them rise from the prior month, but the biggest increase was in the sentiment on the expectations for the economy, specifically the

Labor Market Expectations Improve

Megan Horneman 0:54

labor market. So let's dig into some of the details. We saw that those viewing jobs that are plentiful, and you subtract out those that think there's jobs hard to get, those thinking that there's more plentiful jobs rose the most that we've seen this year. So again, optimism there on the labor market. Could it be because we've seen a slowdown in some of the layoffs that Challenger has been reporting? Um we also saw that the expectation for business conditions in the next month, they were higher. They're the highest that we've seen since October of 2025.

Big Ticket Buying Intentions Jump

Megan Horneman 1:28

And we like to look at some of the indicators in this index as far as consumers thinking they're going to purchase big ticket items. You tend to see that you will consumers will be optimistic about buying those big ticket items if they're optimistic about their job prospects. So we did see the optimism around jobs filter into these indicators. When you look at those that are looking to buy an auto, um an automobile, a new automobile over the next six months, that jumped. Um you also saw those that are looking to buy a home rise to uh the highest level that we've seen this year. And then when you look at those expecting their income to increase versus those expecting their income to decrease over the next six months, that jumped pretty big as well to the highest we've seen since October of last year.

Oil Prices And Middle East Context

Megan Horneman 2:15

So consumers are cheering the fact that does this coincide with the the Middle East having a semi-ceasefire right now? Um, maybe some cooling in the oil prices. It's a different story today, but when you go back and look at the rest of the month, we did, you know, peak in oil above $100 a barrel and settled in here just shy of $100 a barrel.

Will Optimism Lift Q2 Spending

Megan Horneman 2:36

We don't know if this will translate into further spending. Again, we got a mixed report last week from Consumer Confidence, but we will be looking to see if it does. This optimism spills into spending for the month of April. Remember, it's the first month we'll get of the second quarter date quarter data.

Wrap Up And Where To Listen

Megan Horneman 2:52

That's all we have today. If you want a history of our podcast, you can go to marketswithmegan.fm. Thank you.