5 Questions Driving Markets This Summer | S3 E152 | 06-22-26

With markets hitting record highs and a tentative U.S.-Iran ceasefire in place, investors are sitting with a lot of open questions heading into the second half of 2026. In this episode, Megan Horneman works through the five questions she's hearing most from investors right now, from energy prices to Fed policy to what Q2 earnings season might reveal.

- What the U.S.-Iran interim ceasefire means for investors, and three key details still unresolved

- Why gas prices haven't kept pace with the 30% drop in crude oil, and when that relief may arrive

- Why Verdence expects the Fed to raise interest rates in the second half of 2026, starting at 25 basis points

- Whether stocks are actually overvalued at record highs, and why current earnings expectations may be too optimistic

- What investors should watch in Q2 earnings season, specifically whether AI spending is generating measurable revenue

- Why Verdence remains in a buy-on-weakness posture while staying patient on new positions this summer

If you're watching your portfolio closely and trying to make sense of a complicated market, this episode gives you a clear-eyed mid-year read. Subscribe so you never miss a weekly update from Megan.

For a history of all Markets with Megan episodes, visit: https://marketswithmegan.FM

#MarketsWithMegan #FedRateHike #IranCeasefire #OilPrices #StockMarket2026 #EarningsSeason #AIStocks #InvestingAdvice #MidYearOutlook #marketupdate 

https://youtu.be/sXonCJlm59w

Disclaimer:  material was prepared by Verdence Capital Advisors, LLC (“VCA”). VCA believes the information and data in this document were obtained from sources considered reliable and correct and cannot guarantee either their accuracy or completeness. VCA has not independently verified third-party sourced information and data. Any projections, outlooks 
or assumptions should not be construed to be indicative of the actual events which will occur. These projections, market outlooks or estimates are subject to change without notice. This material is being provided for informational purposes only and is not intended to provide, and should not be relied upon for, investment, accounting, legal, or tax advice. Past performance is not a guarantee of future results. Different types of investments involve varying degrees of risk, and there can be no assurance 
that the future performance of any specific investment, investment strategy, or product or anynon-investment related content, made reference to directly or indirectly in these materials will be profitable, equal any corresponding indicated historical performance level(s), be suitable for your portfolio or individual situation, or prove successful. You should not assume that any 
discussion or information contained in this report serves as the receipt of, or as a substitute for, personalized investment advice from VCA. Due to various factors, including changing market conditions and/or applicable laws, the c...

Transcript

Midyear Market Reset

Megan Horneman 0:00

We're starting to reflect on the first half of 2026. It's Monday, June 22nd, and this is Markets with Maiden. If you like this podcast, please subscribe, hit that alarm bell, share with your friends, family, colleagues, anyone who's interested in that economic data, what it means for investments, and what it means for the market.

The Five Big Investor Questions

Megan Horneman 0:19

Today we're going to focus a little bit differently. We're going to address the top five questions that we've seen in investors' minds right now.

Iran Ceasefire And What’s Unclear

Megan Horneman 0:27

First of all, is this it for the US and Iran war a peace deal? We have an interim deal. It's basically a ceasefire for 60 days. There's still three things that we want to get more clarity on. It's the Strait of Hormuz, how quickly, how um how how efficiently this will move through to bring those supply and production. Secondly, um, the Iran nuclear program, will that be completely stopped? What is the deal on the moratorium? And then, third, what is the situation between Israel and Lebanon? Are they coming a part of this peace deal as well?

When Energy Prices Feel Cheaper

Megan Horneman 1:03

The second question is: when will we see the relief in energy costs? We've already seen gasoline prices come down about 10%, but at the same time, crude oil prices have come down 30%. This takes time. Production and transportation will take time for us to see an ongoing decline in gasoline prices.

Fed Rate Hike Timing Debate

Megan Horneman 1:23

Third question is when will the Fed raise rates? We do think that inflation is sticky at this point. We will get a lot of volatility between with inflation because of the up and down in gasoline and energy costs, but the underlying inflation is still there. We do think that this will lead the Fed to likely raise interest rates in the second half of this year. The exact month, we're not sure. We think they'll start with 25 basis points to give them a little bit of leeway.

Are Stocks Actually Expensive

Megan Horneman 1:51

The fourth question here is are equities expensive? We've seen equities making record highs. Are they expensive at these levels? From a price to earnings valuation multiple, no. We've seen basically flat PE expansion this year, but yet earnings are very optimistic for every quarter from here on out. You're looking at 20% plus year-over-year earnings growth for every quarter through the rest of 2026. This might be a little optimistic given the anticipation that the Fed may need to raise interest rates in the second half of this year.

Q2 Earnings And AI Revenue Proof

Megan Horneman 2:25

The last question is it kind of surrounds earnings season. Will this Q2 earnings season that starts in July, will that support this rally? First of all, the big thing is that earnings have been driven by technology, financials as well. But from a technology standpoint, investors are going to want to look for real revenue that comes out because of the excessive spending from an AI standpoint. That has continued, their tolerance for this has continued to decline in recent quarters. So we want to see if there is some real revenue that's tied to this excessive spending.

Buy Weakness But Stay Patient

Megan Horneman 3:00

So bottom line, we are still on the buy on the weakness, not sell on the weakness mentality because we're constructive about the US equity market long term. But we are very patient and very diligent on what we're looking at within that equity market. Right now, we do think there's too much optimism priced in. There's not enough reward for the risk that's in the market right now. We're staying patient. We'll look for opportunities, and we may get that through the summer months. Remember, we are approaching a period where we may encounter some seasonal weakness from an equity perspective.

Wrap Up And Where To Find More

Megan Horneman 3:35

Thank you very much. That's all we have today. If you want a history of our podcast, please go to marketswithmegan.fm. Thank you.